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JULY 25,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

THE DEM CONVENTION – We aren't paying that much attention to the convention because the only really important moment comes Thursday night when the coaches and white horses pull up to the convention center in Philadelphia, and Hillary gives her acceptance speech.  Then we can compare Hillary with Trump, knowing that the nation is doing the same.  Thus far, the Bernie Sanders faction has been loud, rude and passionate, but they won't be able to change anything.  They have been booing Hillary's name, however Sanders himself is publicly pleading with them to get real, and get behind the nominee.  We'll know during Hillary's speech Thursday, the most important of her life, whether the party will heed Sanders's plea.  If it doesn't, Hillary is history.

HIDDEN TRUMPSTERS?  They seem to be cropping up all over.  From Bill Kristol at the Weekly Standard:  In any case, we were chatting with our waitress, a young (apparently single) mom who was looking forward to taking her two little kids to Disney World, where she'd never been, at the end of this busy work week. We drifted into a discussion of politics, and after some hesitation she acknowledged she intended to vote for Trump. Why, we asked? Because, she said, she had a low opinion of Hillary, thought Trump would be a strong leader and bring about change, and because of Trump's stance on law and order (one of her cousins is a policeman). I asked her whether she'd voted before. Yes, she said, she'd voted for Obama, hoping he'd bring about change, and feeling the Romney Republicans were out of touch with people like her. Wow, I thought. How many other Obama-Trump voters are out there? They're not the types who'll volunteer their views to pollsters. Could there be more of them than there are Romney-Clinton switchover voters? It strikes me as quite possible.  I'm getting that same sensation in just going out and talking to people.  It's clear that Trump has hidden support, and that his crudeness and, frankly, lack of knowledge, don't bother a whole mass of people who are fed up with the current establishment.

IS THIS REAL? – FROM BUSINESS INSIDER:   If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.  That's what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.  In his "Now-cast" election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency.  Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation's highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday.  Silver's model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285 electoral votes in Silver's model.  It's the first time in Silver's "Now-cast" forecast that Trump has been projected to win.  Look, it's early, and polling at this stage is more entertainment than political prognostication.  Having said that, it's also clear that Trump has been underestimated.  His political obituary was written just before every primary day, and torn up the next day.

July 25,  2016     Permalink

THE DEMS MEET – AT 10:31 A.M. ET:  The Democratic National Convention starts today in Philadelphia.  The party of Roosevelt, Truman and Kennedy has now become the party of Jimmy Carter, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton.  Or is it the party of Hillary Clinton?  There is chaos, there is anger, there is mayhem.  I love it all.  From The Wall Street Journal:   

PHILADELPHIA — It’s not just Republicans that want presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in prison.

At a lively Sunday march in support of former Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, chants of “lock her up,” “Hillary for Prison” signs and t-shirts and calls for indictment were common among the most ardent supporters of Mr. Sanders, who arrived in Philadelphia to make their voices heard to the delegates attending the Democratic National Convention.

Republicans used last week’s Republican National Convention to make the case that Mrs. Clinton’s perceived ethical lapses made her unfit for office. Delegates to the Republican convention could be heard chanting “Lock her up!” while “Hillary for Prison” shirts and bumper stickers have proliferated across the country.

Mrs. Clinton hasn’t been accused of any criminal wrongdoing — in fact, Federal Bureau of Investigation director James Comey explicitly said that her use of a private email server for government work did not rise to the level that would justify criminal charges. However, Mr. Comey called her “extremely careless” in her handling of the nation’s secrets by running her work email off a private server, while a State Department probe concluded that she was in violation of Department rules.

COMMENT:  I'm guessing we'll see some pretty good reality TV.  And hear some pretty good unreality speeches. 

This may be even more entertaining than last week.  If the Sanders delegates really get going, they can turn the convention into a shambles, and they just might.  I get the feeling that many of them aren't real Democrats.

July 25, 2016       Permalink

AND AGAIN, ISIS – AT 10:17 A.M. ET:  A new attack in Germany was clearly carried out by someone radicalized by ISIS.  From Britain's Sun:

A SYRIAN migrant who killed himself and injured 12 others after setting off a bomb in front of a wine bar in Germany recorded a video on his phone pledging allegiance to ISIS.

The attacker, who was due to be deported to Bulgaria, also had violent videos on his phone in one of which he committed himself to the Islamic State’s leader.

The bomber, who was denied asylum in the country last year, had originally tried to get into a music festival hosting 2,500 people in the southern city of Ansbach – but was turned away as he had no ticket.

After being turned away the bomber walked to a nearby bar in the centre of Ansbach to set off the deadly device, which was packed with metal.

It has now emerged that the bomber was due to be deported to Bulgaria from Germany.

The attacker is being named locally as Mohamed Deleel and was already known to police for possession of drugs and also spent time in a psychiatric facility having attempted suicide twice before.

Residents at the man’s asylum shelter have described him as a “lying attention seeker”.

COMMENT:   This happened over the weekend, the third attack in Germany in the last week.  But of course we must not jump to conclusions about Islamic terrorism.  He may have been shortchanged in a beer hall, which would certainly make his actions understandable...to Barack Obama.

July 25, 2016       Permalink

STUNNING POLL RESULTS – AT 9:52 A.M. ET:  Donald Trump got a greater-than-expected bump from his Cleveland convention.  From CNN:

(CNN) The bounce is back.

Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.

There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.

The new findings mark Trump's best showing in a CNN/ORC Poll against Clinton since September 2015. Trump's new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump's convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein.

COMMENT:  Trump's job now is to stay on message, which he may not be able to do.  His public comments since the convention have shown a retreat to the off-the-cuff, sometimes incoherent stands he took early in the campaign.  He has to flesh out his message, be prepared to answer questions in detail, and yet maintain the rebel image that has gotten him this far.  The campaign will last three months and a week.

July 25,  2016     Permalink

JULY 24,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

NEW BOMBING IN GERMANY – FROM CNN:   (CNN) An explosion in the southern German city of Ansbach was a suicide attack, according to the region's interior minister. The bomber died in the blast.  A device was exploded by a 27-year-old Syrian national outside a music festival. He had been denied entry into the event due to the lack of a ticket, Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann said during a news conference early Monday.  Twelve people were injured.  This is the third attack in Germany this week.  They're getting routine, aren't they?  This is the way we live now. 

TRUMP GAINS IN BATTLEGROUND STATES – FROM THE HILL:   Support for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump ticked up across battleground states following the Republican National Convention last week, according to the new CBS News Battleground Tracker Poll.  Trump now has 42 percent support across the 11 battleground states surveyed — up from the 40 percent he had last week before the convention. Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has 41 percent support, unchanged from last week's poll.  The key will be the polls taken right after this week's Democratic National Convention.  If Hillary gets a bump, it will probably wipe out any Trump advantage.  If she doesn't, she might want to cancel the moving van.

THE UNREADY OLYMPICS – FROM AFP:   Rio de Janeiro (AFP) - The Australian Olympic team will not move into the athletes village in Rio after it was condemned as "not safe or ready" by the country's chef de mission on Sunday.  Team chief Kitty Chiller said problems include blocked toilets, leaking pipes, exposed wiring, darkened stairwells where no lighting has been installed and dirty floors in need of a massive clean.  She claimed that water has come through the ceiling resulting in large puddles on the floor around cabling and wiring.  "Due to a variety of problems in the Village, including gas, electricity and plumbing I have decided that no Australian Team member will move into our allocated building," she said in a statement.  "We were due to move into the Village on July 21 but we have been living in nearby hotels, because the Village is simply not safe or ready."  Absolutely incredible.  What else isn't ready?  How about security, for the athletes and the public?  And where is the legendarily arrogant International Olympic Committee in all this?  The games start in less than two weeks, and we have every right to wonder what really is going on. 

July 24,  2016     Permalink

KOBE GETS IT RIGHT – QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 12:16 P.M. ET:  Out of the mouth of a champion basketball player.  From the Daily Wire: 

Five-time NBA champion Kobe Bryant accidentally stumbled on the major problem of the Democrat Party: Not only do endless government handouts and entitlements not work fiscally, they act to create a culture of dependence, squashing individuals' "growth" while stifling their own "dreams and ambitions."

In other words, endless handouts and entitlements are morally wrong.

In a letter to his 17-year-old self, published in the Player’s Tribune, the 37-year-old former Laker advises his younger self on the cusp of achieving his dreams to “invest” in the futures of those around him, not “give” them free stuff.

When your Laker dream comes true tomorrow, you need to figure out a way to invest in the future of your family and friends. This sounds simple, and you may think it’s a no-brainer, but take some time to think on it further.

I said INVEST.

I did not say GIVE.

By giving away unearned monetary and material gifts to his family and friends, the hoop star explains that he was only “holding them back.”

“But the day will come when you realize that as much as you believed you were doing the right thing, you were actually holding them back,” wrote Bryant.

And...

Of course, everything Bryant is warning against is exactly what the Democratic Party stands for. Democrats are the party of Big Government, handouts and entitlements. The prescriptions of limitless public assistance to able bodies, "free" healthcare, "free" college, "free" birth control, and so on, only act to stifle independence and crush personal ambitions and dreams, just as Bryant figured out first hand with his family.

But Democrats won't take note. Why would they when their votes depend on this morally bankrupt platform?

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  It's well worth it, and a great lesson in life.

July 24, 2016       Permalink 

THE DIVIDED DEMS – AT 11:32 A.M. ET:   We started noting this in "Short Takes" last night.  The Democratic National Convention begins tomorrow, and I'm sure Ms. Hillary hoped for a smooth affair, culminating in her crowning.  She's not getting it.  From Fox: 

PHILADELPHIA – Democratic National Committee boss Debbie Wasserman Schultz reportedly has been sidelined from a speaking role at her party’s convention, as Sen. Bernie Sanders amplified his criticism Sunday of his arch-political nemesis – and doubled down on calls for her to resign.

The Vermont independent is himself set to speak on the opening night of the Democratic convention, securing an A-list position after a hard-fought, ideological primary battle with Hillary Clinton.

But he hasn’t forgiven Wasserman Schultz for an alleged pro-Clinton bias during the campaign. He repeated those claims in the wake of WikiLeaks’ release of roughly 20,000 Democratic National Committee emails -- including some that suggested the group indeed tried to undermine Sander’s insurgent campaign.

“I think [Wasserman Schultz] should resign. Period. And I think we need a new chair who is going the lead us in a very different direction,” Sanders told ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday.

Sanders said “these emails reiterate that reason why she should not be chair.”

Sanders will be joined Monday night on stage at the Wells Fargo Center by first lady Michelle Obama and several other speakers, according to the Democratic National Committee.

COMMENT:  This is going to be bitter.  Sanders will get a tumultuous ovation tomorrow night from the convention floor, which will be filled with the leftist true believers who are taking over the Democratic Party. 

I look forward to the rationalizations that will be put forward by the Hillaried press. 

The fact is, neither party is in such great shape.

July 24, 2016       Permalink

OLYMPIC DECISION – AT 11:14 A.M. ET:  There has been a chance that Russia would be entirely banned from the upcoming Rio Olympics because of a doping scandal.  That would have made the games far less interesting and the awards less meaningful.  Russia is an athletic powerhouse.

It looks like the problem has been dealt with, although one has the feeling that Moscow got a glorified slap on the wrist.  From BBC: 

Russia will not receive a blanket ban from Rio 2016 following the country's doping scandal.

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) will leave it up to individual sports' governing bodies to decide if Russian competitors are clean and should be allowed to take part.

The decision follows a report in which Canadian law professor Richard McLaren said Russia operated a state-sponsored doping programme from 2011 to 2015.

The Rio Games start on 5 August.

Competitors from Russia who want to take part in the Games will have to meet strict criteria laid down by the IOC.

Any Russian athlete who has served a doping ban will not be eligible for next month's Olympics.

COMMENT:   The Olympics are a great spectacle, but behind the spectacle there has always been a hefty level of ugliness – big money, international politics, and assorted scandals in judging. 

Add to that deep concerns about terrorism and possible spread of disease, and the Rio Olympics, the first ever in South America, are being approached with both hope and understandable apprehension.

July 24,  2016     Permalink